In the latest figures released by HMRC the amount of unpaid tax has increased by circa £1 billion.

What is the tax gap?

The VAT gap is the difference between the amount of VAT that should, in theory, be collected by HMRC, against what is actually collected. The ‘VAT total theoretical liability’ (VTTL) represents the VAT that should be paid if all businesses complied with both the letter of the law and HMRC’s interpretation of the intention of Parliament in setting law, referred to as the spirit of the law below.

Summary

Here is an overview of the figures which are for the year 2016-17:

The VAT gap is estimated to be £11.7 billion in which equates to 8.9% of net VAT total theoretical liability. HMRC report that there has been a long-term reduction between 2005-06 and 2016-17 for the VAT gap (12.5% to 8.9%). The information is provided by The Office for National Statistics, National Accounts Blue Book 2017 and Consumer Trend.

MTIC

The Missing Trader Intra-Community (MTIC) fraud estimate reduced to less than £0.5 billion in 2016-17, from between £0.5 billion and £1 billion in 2015-16.. VAT debt has been fairly stable since 2011-12. It is estimated at £1.5 billion in 2016-17. Around 70% of the VAT total theoretical liability in 2016-17 was from household consumption. The remaining gap was from consumption by businesses making exempt supplies and from the government and housing sectors. Around half of household VAT-able expenditure was from restaurants and hotels, transport and recreation and culture.

VAT debt

The contribution of debt to the VAT gap is defined as the amount of VAT declared by businesses but not paid to HMRC. The VAT gap showed a peak at 12.6% in 2008-09, which was partly because the recession caused an increase in VAT debt from £0.9 billion in 2007-08 to £2.4 billion in 2008-09. VAT debt has been fairly stable since 2011-12. It is estimated at £1.5 billion in 2016-17.

Avoidance

VAT avoidance is another component of the VAT gap. HMRC say that avoidance is artificial transactions that serve little or no purpose other than to produce a tax advantage. It involves operating within the letter, but not the spirit, of the law. VAT avoidance is estimated at £0.1 billion in 2016-17.

Other indirect taxes

The overall excise tax gap is estimated to be £4.1 billion (£3.1 billion in excise duty and £1 billion in VAT). This is analysed as:

• £2.5 billion tobacco tax gap, with associated losses in tobacco duty (£1.9 billion) and VAT (£0.5 billion )
• £1.3 billion alcohol tax gap, with associated losses in alcohol duty (£0.9 billion) and VAT (£0.4 billion)
• £150 in GB diesel duty and associated VAT
• £40 in Northern Ireland (NI) diesel duty and associated VAT
• £170 in other excise duties

Overall tax gap

The report indicates that small businesses were most likely to be underpaying tax generally. They accounted for £13.7 billion of last the overall tax gap. Large businesses had underpaid £7 billion and medium-sized businesses £3.9 billion.

The tax gap for Income Tax, National Insurance and Capital Gains Tax was 4.2%.  Along with VAT there has been a long-term downward trend in the Corporation Tax gap. This has reduced from 12.4% in 2005/06 to 7.4% last year.

It appears that the days of large tax avoidance schemes have passed and HMRC is now concentrating on compliance mistakes and routine errors.  HMRC is also increasingly challenging legal interpretations of tax law in order to recover more tax. Please see here for further details on HMRC’s approach.

What causes the tax gap?

The behaviour giving rise to the gap are as follows:

• £5.9 billion – failure to take reasonable care
• £5.4 billion – criminal attacks
• £5.3 billion – legal interpretation
• £5.3 billion – evasion
• £3.4 billion – non-payment
• £3.2 billion – error
• £3.2 billion – hidden economy
• £1.7 billion – avoidance